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09/02/2010 - Newark, DE (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - OK, now, the Delaware offense consists of quarterback Pat Devlin and, well, uh, um ...
Yes, the answers don't necessarily role off the tongue.
Don't be mistaken, however, UD will be much more than PD this season. In fact, the Blue Hens will have to be if they are going to accomplish their goal of being an elite team again in CAA Football and, ultimately, the Football Championship Subdivision.
Last year's trying season of injuries and youthful mistakes has led to a seasoned lineup for ninth-year head coach K.C. Keeler. After his squad shook off the early rust that often goes with a season-opening game, Devlin threw for three touchdowns and the Blue Hens shut out Division II West Chester for the second straight year, 31-0 before 19,421 sweaty fans Thursday night at Tubby Raymond Field.
Quite frankly, the game ball belonged more to Delaware's defense, which was smothering in allowing only 115 yards on 57 West Chester plays. Sixth-year senior linebacker Matt Marcorelle returned from injury and the veteran secondary of Anthony Bratton, Anthony Walters and Tyrone Grant was ridiculously good with three interceptions.
But everyone around UD is so anxious for the All-America Devlin to play like the next Joe Flacco that the intrigue around the team is how much the rest of the offense can support Devlin's starring role. Against West Chester, it looked like the unit has come of age a year after the Blue Hens went 6-5 and two years after - gulp - the low point of Keeler's tenure, a 4-8 record in 2008.
"I think we know each other better," said Devlin, the Penn State transfer who is one of 17 returning starters. "I think that turns into better chemistry on the field. And I think we're having more fun when we're out here just because we're kind of in each other's heads and we know what each other person is going to do.
"Just overall, there's more confidence in the offense, more confidence in the guys around me. I think everyone believes that everyone is going to get their job done."
The Blue Hens' offensive line features four returning starters, led by right tackle Kevin Uhll and his 27 straight starts. New tailback Andrew Pierce is a grayshirt freshman, but was on campus last spring, impressed in the spring game and has raced past last year's talented freshmen, David Hayes and Leon Jackson, on the depth chart. The receiving corps is so deep that it's hard for anybody to focus on just one or two of them.
"We did want to come out strong today, and I think we did that overall," Devlin said. "I think there are some things that we can improve on (two lost fumbles, six penalties) and we'll learn that in film.
"I think a lot of the guys showed it tonight. You know, Rob Jones is not only a good wideout, he can return punts, return kicks as well. Mark Mackey is a really good player on the outside, just as Phil Thaxton is. You saw that, make a 5-yard catch and turn it into a touchdown."
A half dozen or so NFL scouts were in attendance to watch Devlin (three have put in requests for all seven Delaware home games). He was out of the game in less than three quarters, a relative peace offering to West Chester when the score was 31-0.
Devlin completed 14 of 23 passes for 163 yards and spread the wealth with touchdowns to Nihja White (7 yards), Tommy Crosby (15 yards) and Thaxton (23 yards). Meanwhile, Pierce rushed for 119 yards, including a 22-yard touchdown, on 13 carries in his first career start.
"We gave A.P. (Pierce) an opportunity today and he was as advertised," Keeler said. "We really felt during the course of training camp he was proving that he needed to be our number one back. Gregg Perry, the running back coach, was really adamant about we need a guy that we can give the ball to 25 times a game. And A.P. is that kind of guy - 200-pounder, great speed, catches the ball in the backfield, doesn't make a lot of mistakes. So for a grayshirt freshman, he had a pretty good day."
"I've been waiting for this day to happen," Pierce said. "My line blocked great today. I ran well. I'm just happy for that, I'm happy for this win.
"I've talked about it before," Pierce added. "Playing with a guy that has a good chance of going to the NFL is going to be a great opportunity, teaching me things that I didn't know. It's just a great opportunity for me."
Delaware put the game away late in the second quarter with a third touchdown that flashed images the Blue Hens hope to see all season. Flashed was the optimum word because the three-play drive lasted a mere 46 seconds.
On the second play, Pierce sprinted for a 34-yard, across-the-field run to the West Chester 15. On the next play, Devlin tossed a 15-yard out pattern to Crosby in the end zone for an easy score and a 21-0 Blue Hens' lead.
It was impressive, quick and more than just Devlin.
Delaware, ranked 16th in The Sportsbook Betting Lines/Fathead.com FCS Top 25, will get a much bigger test next Saturday when ninth-ranked South Dakota State comes across the country for a big non-conference showdown.
Rest assured the Jackrabbits will be familiar with plenty of Blue Hens besides Pat Devlin. They'll need to be.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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