Verdasco rallies from two-set deficit to shock Ferrer

Tennis Betting Lines

09/07/2010 - Flushing Meadows, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Fernando Verdasco came back from a two-set deficit to stun fellow Spaniard David Ferrer and reach the quarterfinals at the U.S. Open.

The eighth-seeded Verdasco reached the quarterfinals here for a second straight year with an incredible 5-7, 6-7 (8-10), 6-3, 6-3, 7-6 (7-4) win over the No. 10 seeded Ferrer in a match that took nearly 4 1/2 hours.

Earlier in the day, there was another 4 1/2-hour match, as Switzerland's Stanislas Wawrinka downed Sam Querrey, leaving the Americans without a quarterfinalist. The 25th-seeded Swiss was a 7-6 (11-9), 6-7 (5-7), 7-5, 4-6, 6-4 winner over the 20th-seeded Querrey.

Also Tuesday, former semifinalist Mikhail Youzhny was a fourth-round winner. The 12th-seeded Youzhny handled former top-10 Spaniard Tommy Robredo, 7-5, 6-2, 4-6, 6-4 at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center.

Last year, Verdasco saw a round-of-eight loss to Novak Djokovic, which was his best result in Flushing Meadows. This time, though, he may have to go through top-seeded Rafael Nadal, who plays the last match of the night against fellow Spaniard and No. 23 seed Feliciano Lopez.

Verdasco was able to win the match despite piling up 89 unforced errors and 11 double faults. He fought off four set points in the 12th game of the second set to force the tiebreaker. He then wasted a pair of set points during the tiebreak before Ferrer finally took control. During one point, a frustrated Verdasco slammed his racquet to the ground after delivering a wide forehand return.

After fighting off a fifth set point, Verdasco finally succumbed as Ferrer sent a backhand passing shot to move his compatriot down two sets.

After two strong sets for Verdasco, the fifth was a battle of attrition. Ferrer moved to a 4-2 lead, but gave up the next three games, with Verdasco taking a 5-4 lead after a sizzling backhander at the net.

Ferrer forced the tiebreaker, but Verdasco used his feet to outlast his opponent. On match point, Ferrer put down a perfect drop shot, but Verdasco raced to the left side and deposited the ball into the left corner of the court before crumpling to his knees in celebration.

The Russian Youzhny prevailed in just over three hours in a mostly-uneventful match at Armstrong Stadium. Youzhny tallied four service breaks, compared to only one for the Spanish loser, who captured the third set with his lone break.

Robredo, who was the lowest-ranked man (41st) still standing here, won his second-and third-round matches when his opponents retired. The 28-year-old fell to 0-7 in his fourth-round U.S. Open matches.

Spain placed no fewer than six men in the round of 16 here. The eight-time major champion and top-ranked Nadal is the reigning Wimbledon and French Open titlist. He's never reached a U.S. Open final and needs this title to complete a career Grand Slam.

"They play really, really well," Youzhny said. "Why? They have a lot of courts; they have a lot of good facilities to practice well. I think it's not really expensive to practice in Spain for Spanish people. In Russia now it's very expensive to practice in Moscow. Not everybody can do this. Before they had only good results on clay, but now, in my opinion, the hard courts are going a little bit slower than previous years. That's why they can play also well on hard courts."

The 28-year-old Youzhny reached the U.S. Open final four back in 2006.

Youzhny, who will appear in his fourth career Grand Slam quarterfinal, awaits Wawrinka.

This is the first Grand Slam quarterfinal berth for Wawrinka in his 23rd major tournament. The result also means there will be two Swiss men in the quarterfinals at a Grand Slam for the first time in the Open Era, the other this year being five-time U.S. Open champion Roger Federer.

The quarters will get underway here on Wednesday. The second-seeded Federer takes on fifth-seeded two-time French Open runner-up Robin Soderling in the final match of the night at Arthur Ashe Stadium. Earlier on Ashe, third-seeded former Flushing runner-up Novak Djokovic will be opposed by 17th-seeded Frenchman Gael Monfils. The reigning Australian Open champion Federer was stunned by Argentine Juan Martin del Potro in last year's finale here.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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